Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is ailing amidst one of the most demanding times of his leadership. With increasing outside threats and increasing domestic restlessness, talk about who will replace him has shifted from subtle rumour to anxious speculation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently told ABC News that removing Khamenei could bring an end to decades of hostility between Iran and Israel. His Defence Minister, Israel Katz, followed up the next day, stating that Khamenei could suffer the same fate as Saddam Hussein.
Khamenei’s Successor: Familiar Names Come Forward
The prospect of a post-Khamenei Iran gained further momentum following reports that former US President Donald Trump had foiled a plan by Israel to kill him. Netanyahu justified the plan, stating it would not escalate tensions, but rather resolve them.
One of the most discussed successors is Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the Supreme Leader. Born in 1969, he served in the Iran-Iraq war and enjoys strong connections to the Revolutionary Guard and Iran’s religious hierarchy. Even though Mojtaba is not in public office, he is highly influential behind the scenes. Nevertheless, the concept of hereditary succession is not palatable to many Iranians who treasure the original ideals of the revolution.
Alireza Arafi is another viable candidate. He is a well-respected cleric and is presently holding influential roles like a member of the Guardian Council and deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts. Arafi also conducts Friday prayers in Qom, indicative of his position in the religious establishment. His political alignment with the Islamic Republic’s ideology makes him a likely contender.
How Iran Chooses Its Next Supreme Leader
When the Supreme Leader is no longer in a position to function, the Assembly of Experts is summoned to choose an heir. It is comprised of 88 veteran clerics who are all elected but screened carefully before they can be eligible for election. They hold office for eight years.
When the time is ripe, they sit in private to deliberate on credentials and politics of possible candidates. There is minimum public involvement or openness in the process. To make a decision, a minimum of 45 votes is required, but the target is always to achieve consensus and eschew power contests.
Another notable figure in the succession conversation is Ali Asghar Hejazi. He manages political security in Khamenei’s office and is deeply involved in Iran’s intelligence system. Known for working behind the scenes, Hejazi has played a key role in many national decisions.
Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei also holds significant experience. He has served in Iran’s judiciary for decades and was once the intelligence minister. His legal expertise and loyalty to the regime position him as a potential candidate.
Khamenei’s Rule and the Deep Divide with the West
Since 1989, Khamenei has been in power, taking over after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini died. Ever since, he has had absolute authority over Iran’s military, judiciary, media, and other state institutions. His influence is extensive and his suspicion of the West has been a hallmark of his rule.
Earlier this year, after Donald Trump resumed the presidency, Khamenei directed authorities to return to negotiations with Washington. But on March 12, he cautioned that the negotiation should be done cautiously. He stated, “In negotiations, one should be sure that the other side will uphold their obligations. When we are sure they won’t adhere to them, what is the purpose of negotiating?”
Iran was gearing up to hold another round of nuclear negotiations on June 15. But all this fell apart when Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities two days ago, again raising tensions to a high level.
Following an early departure from the G7 Summit in Canada, President Trump indicated significant developments. He issued a warning to the leadership of Iran that the United States was aware of the whereabouts of Ayatollah Khamenei but was opting against taking any action at the moment. This was said shortly after the news that he had prevented an initial Israeli plot to assassinate the Iranian leader.
Would Regime Change Restage Iran’s Future?
If the Islamic Republic were to collapse entirely, the picture of succession would change completely. It would no longer be about the clerics. Exiles, even those who are not part of the regime, could be included in the discussion.
Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri is one such personality. A First Deputy Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, he is the head of a prominent religious institution based in Qom. Being a Friday prayer leader directly appointed by Khamenei himself, Bushehri wields substantial authority within the clerical hierarchy in Iran.
At the opposite end of the political spectrum is Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s former monarch, who has been living in exile in the United States. He is one of the better-known leaders of Iranian opposition movements. Although he has not endorsed a restoration of the monarchy, he remains an advocate of a democratic Iran that prioritizes human rights and national cohesion. He has had increased support, especially with recent uprisings in Iran.
On Tuesday, Pahlavi announced that Khamenei had retreated underground and lost control of the country. He stated that the collapse of the Islamic Republic is “irreversible” and appealed to Iranians to get up and retake their country.
With the battle between Israel and Iran intensifying and global attention fixed on Tehran, the future for Iran is far from clear. Whether through succession or outright regime change, the political dynamics could shift in deep and meaningful ways in the days to come.
