Israel has launched a sweeping set of airstrikes on Iran, striking at the core of Tehran’s nuclear program. The attacks, which targeted facilities critical for uranium enrichment, have reportedly set back Iran’s nuclear efforts by months or even years.
Israel’s Strikes: A Heavy Blow to Iran’s Nuclear Program
The strikes not only resulted in the deaths of key military figures and nuclear scientists but also inflicted substantial damage to Iran’s ability to enrich uranium, a critical step towards developing nuclear weapons.
Experts cited by The Associated Press suggest that the damage could significantly hinder Iran’s nuclear capabilities, especially regarding the enrichment of uranium to levels well beyond what is necessary for peaceful nuclear power.
Impact on Iran’s Nuclear Efforts: Major Setbacks or Temporary Delays?
According to Fabian Hinz, an expert on Iran’s nuclear program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, “there is no question” that Israel’s strikes caused substantial damage to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, The Associated Press reported.
David Albright, a nuclear weapons expert, speculated that the attacks might have delayed Iran’s nuclear ambitions by as much as a year.
However, Hinz, while speaking with the AP, raised an important question: “Did Israel also target suppliers of specialist components such as centrifuges and subcontractors?” These components are vital to Iran’s nuclear efforts, and without them, Iran could face longer-term delays in reviving its program.
Albright noted that Israel’s strategy seemed to focus on “destroying the brains” behind Iran’s nuclear operations and damaging as much equipment as possible. He agreed that these attacks could have done “a tremendous amount of damage” to Iran’s nuclear program, continuing a pattern of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear scientists and facilities in recent years.
What Damage Was Done to Key Nuclear Sites?
The most significant damage appears to have been inflicted at Iran’s Natanz facility, located 135 miles southeast of Tehran. The site, heavily fortified with anti-aircraft batteries and security measures, suffered substantial destruction to its above-ground infrastructure, including the electrical substation and backup power systems that supply the underground section of the facility, per the AP report.
According to Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), “The above-ground part of the plant where uranium was enriched up to 60% was destroyed, along with electrical infrastructure, including a substation, the main electric power supply building, the emergency power supply, and backup generators.”
The underground section of Natanz, where most of the uranium enrichment takes place using over 10,000 centrifuges, was not reported as being directly impacted. However, the loss of power may have caused damage to these centrifuges, which are known to be particularly sensitive to vibration. Albright warned that the shockwaves from the attack or the loss of power could have broken delicate centrifuge parts, as reported by the AP.
The Fordo Facility: A Tougher Target?
While most of Iran’s centrifuges are located at Natanz, the Fordo facility, located 60 miles southwest of Tehran, also plays a crucial role in Iran’s uranium enrichment. This site, buried under a mountain, houses Iran’s most advanced centrifuges, capable of enriching uranium to 60%—just shy of weapons-grade levels, the report said.
Although reports of explosions near Fordo surfaced, experts cited by the AP believe that Israel may not have the capabilities to destroy the facility itself. Fabian Hinz told the agency that while Israel could potentially target the entrance of the facility and temporarily block access, it lacks the earth-penetrating bombs required to breach the mountain and strike the core of Fordo. These bombs are only available to the United States, which has developed such weaponry for large aircraft, a capability Israel does not possess, according to AP.
However, Israel could potentially sabotage the facility by cutting off electricity, which could break the centrifuges inside. This approach would require precise intelligence, which experts like Hinz believe Israel possesses in abundance.
Radiation Risk: Minimal, but Not Zero
Although part of the Natanz facility was destroyed, Grossi confirmed that there was no increase in radiation levels following the strikes. David Albright told the publication that “very little uranium will be released in these kinds of attacks.” Uranium itself is not highly toxic and is commonly found in the environment. Albright compared the potential radiation exposure to the level one might encounter from several transatlantic flights, which involve slightly elevated radiation levels due to high altitudes.
The greater concern, however, is fluorine, a toxic byproduct used in the enrichment process. Fluorine can react with uranium to create uranium hexafluoride, which is extremely volatile and corrosive. If released into the air, fluorine could be deadly if inhaled, posing a serious risk to those nearby during the attacks.
Can Israel’s Strikes Achieve The Goal?
While the full long-term impact of the strikes remains to be seen, Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities has clearly inflicted substantial damage. Whether this will result in a permanent setback or a temporary delay in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is still uncertain. The precision of Israeli intelligence and the ability to target key components like centrifuges and electrical infrastructure suggest that Israel has managed to strike at the heart of Iran’s nuclear efforts.
The risks from radiation are reportedly minimal, but the toxic threat from fluorine remains a significant concern for those in the vicinity of the attacked sites.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has promised to continue the strikes, saying they will continue “for as many days as it takes to remove this threat,” indicating that this is far from the final chapter in Israel’s efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program.
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